Power Struggle in Kenya

While Kenya has been on rocky ground ever since the signing of the National Accord that instituted a coalition government, tensions have erupted in the past two days between the Prime Minister, Ralia Odinga, and President Mwai Kibaki. Prime Minister Odinga now wants Kofi Annan (mediator from the intitial intervention to end the post-election violence) to step in and help reconcile this issue.

Recently a scandal (one of many which has plagued Kenya recently) was reported that allegedly involves the Ministers of Agriculture and Education. Odinga took action by suspending them until a review could decide whether or not they were guilty, apparently done without the consultation of President Kibaki. The President now claims that Odinga has overstepped his constitutional powers and reinstated the two ministers.

Tensions like these have been quiet in the recent months with the Coalition government seeming to get along, but with this new eruption of power struggle, people worry about the effects on the rest of the population. When tensions like these get reported in the news, there inevitably has been increased dialogue of ethnic hatred and more foreshadowing of potential future violence.

Hopefully Kenya will see that this issue dies down quickly to forestall any potential side effects of increased tensions at the local level, but if Annan is truly need, there will be more questioning from the public about the ability of the coalition government to ever work together to institute the reforms they have promised.

Article from BBC

Yemen's Coming Explosion

As Yemen briefly entered and left the spotlight due to attempted airline bombing by Omar Farouk Abdul Mutallab, the US national security establishment has had their eyes on Yemen for quite some time.

"Tick, Tock: Yemen's Coming Explosion" is a recent article in Foreign Policy magazine that highlights Yemen's dire situation.

I recently wrote a response to this article in American Diplomacy which provides an alternative perspective.

Readings for "Special Envoys" Lecture with Daniel Kurtzer

Foreign Policy article on Mitchell's position as Envoy:

http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/01/22/time_for_george_mitchell_to_resign

The Special Envoys articles in the Great Decisions book

Fullilove article from Foreign Policy at onset of Obama administration: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64895/michael-fullilove/send-the-envoy

*Note: good to read article above before article below since it will provide a contrast of opinions

Politico article reviewing a year of progress for Obama's first appointed Special Envoys: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/30203.html

Policy refresher for Israel (in preparation for Kurtzer): http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/05/world/asia/05clinton.html?scp=1&sq=special%20envoy%20mitchell&st=cse

More background on the Israel settlement policy: http://www.economist.com/world/middleeast-africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14939295

Kurtzer's article on Israel policy: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/12/AR2009061203498.html

A direct and quick analysis of the theoretical role of Special Envoys: http://www.caii.com/CAIIStaff/Dashboard_GIROAdminCAIIStaff/Dashboard_CAIIAdminDatabase/resources/ghai/toolbox1.htm

Additional envoys of interest:

*Bosworth and North Korea: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1946145,00.html

*Short article on Gration: http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/10/20/inspector_generals_report_praises_sudan_envoy_scott_gration
*Holbrooke has been quite instrumental in these recent Afghanistan developments (there are a slew of articles concerning these actions, we only included one here): http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/21/world/asia/21diplo.html

Online forum with Special Envoy to Sudan Scott Gration: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNSXeMkiZ_M

(First student question at 5:40; 11 min discusses the pullout of NGOs)

Political cartoon: http://gulfnews.com/opinions/peace-efforts-in-the-middle-east-by-george-mitchell-1.572676

U.S.-China Security Relations (from the Chinese perspective)

In American foreign policy, we inherently and inevitably view the world from the American worldview -- for better or for worse. At Great Decisions, we want to present both sides of each coin by supplementing our readings with relevant journalistic, academic, and governmental works from the country we are studying. However, most of the time we encounter the problem of language and our lack of ability to translate the documents into English. For U.S.-China security relations, we conveniently found a number of articles written by Chinese academics and governmental committees that are in English, and will reserve them until the week of our topic. To give you a preview, read this interesting American account of the Chinese perspective on U.S. diplomacy from UColorado political scientist Peter H. Gries:

http://www.ou.edu/uschina/gries/articles/texts/Gries2005ChinaEyesHegemon.pdf

Europe faces more problems from the financial crisis

More ripples from last year's financial crisis are sweeping over many European countries. Greece, in particular, recently borrowed enormous sums of money to keep the country afloat, and now there are fears that it won't be able to repay that debt. If Greece defaults, that means big trouble for the euro.
This will be an interesting test for the European Union, which has never dealt with such a problem. One option is to let Greece bankrupt itself. Another option is to step in, buy the government's bonds, and avert financial disaster for the EU. The second option sounds much more pleasant, but by stepping in, the EU would be perceived as letting Greece off too easy, and other countries will feel less pressured to narrow their deficits. Rather than taking a stance, we will more likely see a roundabout interaction, with France and Germany coming to the rescue, rather than the EU itself.
Greece has already promised to drastically cut its deficit. But of course, Greece isn't the only one in trouble. Fears are arising for Portugal and Spain as well. And look at our own country! Our deficit is enormous, although fortunately most of the world still views us as the safest place to store money. For that reason the dollar is growing strong, as the euro weakens. Perfect for a European spring break.

Read more: "France, Germany Weigh Rescue Plan for Greece" Article

Massive Protests and Electoral Uncertainty in Ukaine

This week, Ukraine underwent presidential elections in the first election since the Orange Revolution that put Viktor Yushchenko into power. Yushchenko's election as the pro-Western, anti-Russian populist economist that would save the country has failed to turn around problems in the country. Due to widespread national disillusionment, he has lost virtually all political capital, and the recent election was between his one-time ally and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and his old rival in the 2004 election, Viktor Yanukovich.

In a startling turn of events, Yanukovich was declared the winner by 3.5%, turning the country virtually completely around. Yanukovich was the strongly pro-Russian candidate, and he has already declared that the top foreign policy priority of his administration would be rebuilding relations with Russia and the CIS, with a return to "common culture and economic interests".
As of yet, Tymoshenko has refused to recognize the results of this election, and hasn't been seen in public or made any statements since the results were announced. She is expected to call for a partial recount, but Yanukovich has already called for her to step down from her current position as Prime Minister to allow him to establish political unity in the government.

Article.

Readings for this week's lecture "Kenya and R2P" with Andrea Bartoli:

"A New Approach": The Responsibility to Protect (from the ICISS main report)
Pages 11-18 discuss the main issues underlying R2P
http://www.iciss.ca/menu-en.asp

The Kenya/R2P article in the Great Decisions book

"Never Again" in Foreign Policy
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/11/25/never_again

Two-sided Debate: Should the US suport the UN's Responsibility to Protect?
http://www.cfr.org/publication/16285/should_the_us_support_the_uns_responsibility_to_protect_doctrine.html

What did governments from around the world say about R2P at the UN General Assembly debate?
http://www.responsibilitytoprotect.org/index.php/component/content/article/35-r2pcs-topics/2672-what-did-governments-from-your-region-say-at-the-ga-debate

Multimedia: Gordon Brown on Global Ethic vs National Interest
(mentions R2P between 8 min and 12 min)