Understanding the war in Afghanistan

Who knew that understanding the war was so easy.

With Flights Grounded, Kenya’s Produce Wilts

Post by Stephanie Wright, Great Decisions student

Article

Europeans aren’t the only ones being affected by the Icelandic ash blocking much of their airspace. Kenya’s cut-flower and gourmet vegetable industry is being compromised by the ash, too. Two million pounds of produce is shipped out of Kenya nightly, with over 80 percent of these goods shipped to Europe, and over a third of that shipped only to Great Britain. Because of the ash, this entire industry has come to a near standstill. All available refrigerated warehouses at the airport in Nairobi have already been filled, waiting for the first chance to be shipped.

The horticulture industry is losing 3 million dollars a day, cutting jobs and growing stressed. All temporary workers and thousands of others have already been let go. Those still employed have little to do but sit and watch millions of flowers wilt and tons of vegetables and fruits go to feed livestock. Owners and managers of plants are becoming more and more worried that their clients, such as European grocery stores, will find other producers because they cannot stock their shelves. The plants are looking to Prime Minister Raila Odinga to help pay for special flights to get the industry moving again. Already a volatile state, Kenya cannot afford to lose more capital in agriculture, the largest sector of its economy.

Darker Than Usual

Post by Chris Scanzoni, Great Decisions student

New York Times journalist Ethan Bronner recently published a poignant piece illustrating the paradox of the festivities in Jerusalem (1). Despite the grandiose displays of fireworks and outdoor celebrations, popular sentiment on the 62nd Day of Independence in Israel (April 19, 2010) may be better characterized by a grim sense of the nation's international legitimacy and security. Bronner speculates that this year's festivities appear "darker than usual" in the face of the relentless Iranian nuclear program and unprecedentedly strained relations with the United States. Moreover, Bronner cites a widely-reported BBC poll placing Israel among Iran, North Korea, and Pakistan as one of the least-favorably viewed nations in the world. The poll points to a dangerous reality for Israel: without unconditional support for its policies by the United States, a regionally-isolated Israel can no longer ignore the fundamental interests of its immediate neighbors (i.e. water allocation, militantism, etc.). A sustained hardline Israel posture that seeks settlement in the West Bank, starves the Palestinians of basic essentials, and flexes its unrivaled military capacity only serves to embolden Israel's enemies. Nevertheless, it still feasible that Prime Minister Netanyahu can advance policies to remedy this trajectory and peacefully integrate Israel among the moderate Arab powers (e.g. Egypt, Jordan). Overtures indicating a genuine Israeli interest in a comprehensive and just peace agreement with West Bank Palestinians is an immediate option at Netanyahu's disposal. A prudent peace agreement in the West Bank would simultaneously undermine the clout of Iranian leaders and of Hamas, repair the US and EU-Israel alliances, and expand available trading networks for Israel's businesses.

Senior Program Office at the United States Institute of Peace Matthew Levinger contends that "a conflict must arrive at a state of 'ripeness' for negotiation before a settlement becomes possible. This condition can involve a 'hurling stalemate,' where both sides recognize that they are likely to suffer more by continuing the conflict than by ending it" (2). The time has arrived that President Shimon Peres and Prime Minister Netanyahu reengage the peace process, act responsibly, and allow Israel to return to the mantle of an indispensable friend for its neighbors.


CITED:
1. Bronner, Ethan. "Memo from Jerusalem: Mood is Dark as Israel Marks 62nd Year as Nation." The New York Times Online, 19 Apr, 2010. Accessed 20 Apr, 2010 .

2. Levinger, Matthew. "Enhancing security through peace-building." Great Decisions 2010. The Foreign Policy Association. New York, NY: Dartmouth Printing Company, 2010. 93-102. Print.

Obama’s Summit as a Success?

Post by Lindsay Rosenfeld, Great Decisions student

Talk regarding the dangers of nuclear weaponry has become quite prevalent throughout the past few years, reaching its peak this month with the two-day nuclear security conference in Washington D.C. With representatives from 46 countries in attendance, Barak Obama aims to enlist the support of these nations in securing all nuclear material. In today’s world, the prospect of nuclear materials falling into the “wrong” hands is far from unbelievable.
The summit has already proven to be quite promising with the Ukraine’s announcement that it would get rid of its supply of highly enriched uranium by 2012 and Russia’s promise to close its ADE-2 reactor. The truth of the matter is, however, that the true success of the summit will not be apparent until years from now. The primary concern and, likewise, danger is not necessarily the proliferation of such nuclear weaponry, but the unaccounted presence of such materials that can fall into the hands of extremists and terrorists.
Unfortunately, not every country is as concerned with maintaining nuclear security as the United States. This regrettable truth could prove to be the downfall for the nuclear security summit. Rightfully so, countries in sub-Saharan Africa will prioritize eradicating poverty and advancing development over securing nuclear materials. In order to ensure the cooperation of such countries, the Obama administration will need to provide incentives to encourage these countries to cooperate. Whether these incentives come in the form of monetary aid or personnel deployment, these countries need to support the efforts of the summit or else its success will be compromised.

Nature and Business

Post by Alyssa Baskam, Great Decisions student

The cloud of Volcanic ash from Mount Eyjafjallajokull continues to delay air transit throughout Europe. Businesses are beginning to be concerned about possible losses as businessmen remain stranded or unable to complete their business trips. Businesses such as DHL must find creative ways to get their products into and out of Europe and have started shipping to perimeter airports, from where they use ground transport to move their items. This has led to some delays and it is yet to be seen how much loss businesses will accrue. Interestingly enough, other industries have started to boom because of the ash cloud. Bus and train transportation, car rentals, and hotels have benefitted from increased usage. Hotels are full of people who are stranded in the midst of their journeys, at the beginning of their journeys, and unable to return home from their journeys. There is hope that the increase in business at these ends will help to stabilize the GDP. It is still uncertain what kind of effect this ash cloud "freeze" will have on the European economy.

“Ahmadinejad: Iran too 'mighty' to attack”

Post by Emily Jacobson

In response to being snubbed from last week’s nuclear summit in Washington, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sent a warning letter to Obama, spoke out condemningly against the U.S. and the UN Security Council, and held his own retaliatory nuclear conference in Tehran. His seemingly oversized reaction reflects the seriousness of Iran’s intention to be seen as a high status power. Yet while Obama utilized the Washingtonian nuclear summit to pressure countries to support sanctions against Iran, Ahmadinejad repeated the overstated claim that Iranians are after energy not nukes.

"One of the greatest treasons by those that monopolize nuclear weapons is to equalize nukes with nuclear energy,” he asserted. And yet if Iran is only after nuclear energy, one should question why the president reacted so fiercely to being excluded from the conference.

Additionally, Ahmadinejad played the global good guy in his speech. He called the Security Council the “tool” of a few bullying nations and insisted that “Iran is a friend and brother of regional and independent nations and it wants peace, progress and security for all countries.” It may be time for Obama to shift his approach to Iran, especially if Scheuer can be credited when he named two other regional concerns that should take more priority over struggles with Iran. However, if Iran’s reaction to merely being excluded from a nuclear conference is any indication, we should be cautious in our approach with Iran. Especially as they complete their nuclear homework.

Article

Russia Rejecting Belarus-Kazakhstan Joint Bid to WTO

Post by Bryan Kozik, Great Decisions student

In June 2009, both Prime Minister Putin and President Medvedev of Russia publicly discussed the likelihood of Russia’s joint bid to join the World Trade Organization with Belarus and Kazakhstan. This bid would be the result of a proposed customs union between the three states. This union’s first stage took effect on 1 January, and is planned to be complete by 1 July 2011.

Russia has debated joining the WTO since the fall of the Soviet Union. This most recent plan, which was surprising to world leaders and unlikely at its inception due to WTO regulations, has proved to be an idea that both Russian politicians and WTO leaders would like to rescind. Russia, though still committed to the customs union, is likely to join the WTO individually by the beginning of next year.
President Medvedev and First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov agree that the necessary measures that need to be taken to join the WTO, such as lowering certain customs duties, are not likely to happen quickly. They also agree that they expect the United States to put substantial effort towards facilitating Russia’s process.

Article

Greece lightning

Greek and international officials are meeting this week to hammer out the details of the loans to Greece. But, Greece says that no one has asked it to implement austerity measures, including tax overhauls and spending cuts. It seems hard to believe that these lenders would not demand that Greece do more to cut back. If Greece were able to extract those loans basically on its own terms, it could be a major bonus politically for the Socialists in power. They want the loans but don't want to have to deal with the backlash of austerity measures.

Repatriating Nukes

Post by Brendan Yorke, Great Decisions student

Under threat of terrorist strike, Obama is determined to tie up the worlds’ loose radioactive strings. His four-year plan includes collecting the thousands of kilograms of highly enriched uranium, nuclear bombs, and nuclear waste.

Canada’s Prime Minister Stephen Harper eagerly signed the resolution to send the nations nuclear waste South. Once in the US, the weapon’s grade material will be converted to a form only usable for fuel and returned to Canada. The two governments worked side-by-side to create the agreement-- hoped to become the norm for other, more worrisome nations such as Pakistan.

There had been some worry that a rift had formed between the long-time allies after Hilary Clinton criticized Canadian foreign policy in Afganistan and the developing world. After the meeting of Harper and Obama, Canada--US relations seem to be just as strong as ever. Whether for economic or historical reasons, this shows the resilient bond between Canada and the United States. And hey, what could be better than a little nuclear waste to solidify a friendship?

The article can be found here.

Africa’s Drug Problem

Post by Shar-Narne' Flowers, Great Decisions student


A few weeks back we had our lecture about global crime presented by Dr. Bruce Bagley, a professor of International Studies at Miami University. In it, he focused on the drug trafficking occurring between the United States and Mexico/ Latin America. A little over a week ago the New York Times published an article (found here) where, instead of focusing on the drugs passing through the U.S. / Mexico border, the article describes how drug lords have begun to target struggling countries within Africa in order to increase the drug trade between the producers in South America and users in Europe.

As explained in the article, the tiny country of Guinea-Bissau has emerged as a vital midway point for drug trafficking operations. Although there are many factors as to why the country has begun to participate in such an illicit activity, such as an unstable economy and political system, the most significant contributing factor is the fact that many citizens of Guinea-Bissau live in extreme poverty. Guinea-Bissau’s GDP in 2008 was $848 million - among the lowest in the world. In comparison, the GDP for the United States for the same year was 14.441 trillion (Sources: Guinea-Bissau and United_States). These high levels of poverty unfortunately create an easy environment for the drug lords to come in and take residence. The financially distressed citizens are eager to use the drug trade as an opportunity to provide for their families and even use it to gain status within their communities. And the impoverished government does not have enough funds available to adequately take action against the drug siege.

I find this article to be interesting because it shows just how globalized the drug trade actually is. The article even mentions that globalization is a force that Guinea-Bissau is powerless to defend itself from, as “…producers will find a way to deliver all things insatiably desired, whether good or bad.” The main force, I think, that is driving the drug trade is the money, not the drugs themselves. And I think that is important to keep in mind. I feel that the best way to combat illegal activity is to pay attention to the factors causing people to feel as if participating is the only viable way to get out of their dismal situation.

Partisan Messages in Financial Issues

Post by Thomas Wiggins, Great Decisions student

Going off of our discussion concerning the financial recession and the Obama administration’s goals of increased government regulation of financial institutions, this article describes Tea Party political pressures on the Republican Party.
Tom De Luca, a professor of political science at Fordham University, advised for this article and he made a very interesting statement. “What remains to be seen is how closely the movement allies itself with the GOP, to what extent the various Tea Party groups come together as a formal organization and whether the activists solidify around a more coherent message removed from vitriolic embellishments and not grounded in fear, De Luca said.”
He also asked what would happen if the economy improves and the Tea Party’s extreme messages are discredited. This goes along the same lines of what happened at the beginning of this recession when China made similar radical statements against limited regulation, statements that were later discredited when the recession leveled out and began climbing again. Is it fear and ignorance that truly drives such extreme views of governance, such as Stanley Black suggested in his Great Decisions lecture on April 13? It is my opinion that what we need is not more or less regulation, but smarter regulation. The United States, and preferably with cooperation with international financial regulation institutions, needs to create a program of incentives that cause financial institutions to regulate themselves. Such a program would limit then limit the need for outside regulation and thus government regulatory presence. So for now, I think the best way would be increased regulation until such a program can be designed and implemented that would work on a wide scale.

Going Nuclear

Post by BJ Dworak, Great Decisions student

Article

This article provides an interesting intersection in several of the topics we have discussed--special envoys, the Middle East/Persian Gulf, and even Russia. While the United States made great progress in its relations with Russia in the last week signing an agreement to reduce nuclear stockpiles in both countries, problems remain abound regarding the proliferation of nuclear weapons. As the article indicates, no where is this situation more delicate than in Indian and Pakistan. There are great underlying tensions between both countries and despite President Obama expressing confidence in Pakistan's safeguarding of their nuclear weapons, it is well known that there are few institutional safeguards in Pakistan for the use of nuclear weapons. World leaders are currently gathering in Washington to discuss the role of nuclear weapons in the international realm. However, the issue of Pakistan and India is not on the agenda. This underscores the importance of a strong and capable special enjoy to deal with Af-Pak. Matter of fact, a single special envoy devoted to Pakistan might best suit US foreign policy. Regardless, it is important that the United States expends some diplomatic capital in ensuring that the nuclear situation does not get out of hand any where in the world, but especially in the volatile Middle East. If roadblocks to an agreement with Russia can be overcome, anything is possible.

Author Gordon Chang takes an unconventional look at the Chinese holding of U.S. debt.

Decrying Genocide

Christopher Hitchens, with great passion, analyses Turkey's approach to its blood-soaked past here.

Thesis paragraph:

So it is not just a disaster for Turkey that it has a prime minister who suffers from morbid disorders of the personality. Under these conditions, his great country can never hope to be an acceptable member of Europe or a reliable member of NATO. And history is cunning: The dead of Armenia will never cease to cry out. Nor, on their behalf., should we cease to do so. Let Turkey's unstable leader foam all he wants when other parliaments and congresses discuss Armenia and seek the truth about it. The grotesque fact remains that the one parliament that should be debating the question—the Turkish parliament—is forbidden by its own law to do so. While this remains the case, we shall do it for them, and without any apology, until they produce the one that is forthcoming from them.

Pakistan's ISI Hasn't Changed Much

I'm a tad biased, and will therefore refrain from commentary here. But below is a pasted news bulletin which can be found here.


""
The existence of historical ties between Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence directorate and the Afghan Taliban is hardly news. But when the Afghan Taliban's second in command, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, was recently captured, many saw it as a turning point for an agency that is little understood within the CIA. But now officials believe that even as some of Pakistan's security forces have been working alongside Americans to capture key Afghan insurgents, the ISI "quietly freed at least two senior Afghan Taliban figures it had captured on its own," reports the Washington Post. This is seen as evidence that parts of Pakistan's security leadership continues to support elements of the Afghan Taliban in its broad attempt to shape the future of Afghanistan and prepare for an eventual U.S. withdrawal. Pakistani intelligence officials deny that any Taliban figures have been released.

""

The original story can be found in the Washington Post.

Russia-US sign nuclear arms deal

Article.

Obama and Medvedev signed a comprehensive nuclear arms reduction treaty today. This replaces the now defunct START treaty, and allows both states to continue mutual disarmament. The terms of the treaty, seen in the article, provide for a ~30% reduction in both warheads and launchers.

US-China Relations:The Yuan

Post by Ivan Kirov, Great Decisions student

Background: China's Yuan is pegged to the American dollar. This keeps its currency artificially devalued)

The Economist recently published an article (America and the Yuan: The Truth Hurts) that further elaborates on the speculation that the Treasury Department will call China a currency manipulator in its biannual report. The arguments for and against are fairly clear. On the one hand, the hope is that having the Treasury openly condemn the undervalued Yuan will pressure the Chinese to revalue just as tariffs in 2005 led to rapid Chinese revaluation. On the other hand, there is not much that the American government can practically do to alter China's currency stance -- and there is no need to tempt fate by risking an all-out trade war. After all, the Administration has already been negligent enough on the trade front with the tire tariff and the non-opposition to the infamous 'Buy American' provisions in the 2008 stimulus package.

This new article adds a rather powerful argument in favor of branding China a manipulator -- it would forestall preemptive and aggressive Congressional action. The last thing either side wants is a currency or trade war, and that is precisely what would happen should Senators Schumer and Graham succeed in forcing the government to seek redress against China in the IMF, WTO, and through unilateral tariffs. The hope, the article notes, is that by putting China on its manipulator list the administration can pull the rug out from under those calling for more extreme measures.

Some of the poison and vitriol may have been drawn out of the issue after China's recent statements toward a more market-based currency regime. Perhaps China will finally start to dismantle the Great Wall of Yuan that helps keep the global economy from rebalancing away from the dramatic paired surplus-deficit axes of the past.

Karzai on Heroin?

Quote from "The Slatest", link here

Is President Karzai a Heroin Addict?

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has been acting certifiably crazy. At first, everyone attributed it to hurt feelings (an invitation to the White House had been abruptly rescinded). But it's only gotten worse, with Karzai accusing Americans of engineering Afghan election fraud and hinting that he could join the Taliban. Now Peter Galbraith, the American who was once a top U.N. official in Afghanistan, has told MSNBC that the erratic behavior may be about a lot more than diplomatic snubbings. Galbraith said he questions Karzai's "mental stability" and dropped a not-so-subtle hint that the Afghan president is a herion addict. "He's prone to tirades," Galbraith said. "He can be very emotional, act impulsively. In fact, some of the palace insiders say that he has a certain fondness for some of Afghanistan's most profitable exports." Galbraith is not the world's most neutral source on Karzai (he was removed from his U.N. job after accusing Karzai of election fraud), and other diplomatic types say Karzai is paranoid or depressed, not on drugs. Either way, his behavior is bad news for the United States, which needs a strong ally in Kabul if it is to bring most of its troops home from Afghanistan by next year. The White House is bearish on Karzai; press secretary Robert Gibbs danced around the question of whether Karzai is a U.S. ally Tuesday, saying, "He is the democratically elected leader of Afghanistan." Many foreign policy analysts say it's time for the United States to effectively ditch the president; writing in the New York Times Wednesday, one former Defense official argues that if the United States wants to get out of Afghanistan, it's going to have to ignore Kabul (and Karzai) and deal directly with local leaders who will actually cooperate. "Mr. Karzai should be treated as a symbolic president and given the organizational 'mushroom treatment,' " he says. "That is, we should shut off the flows of information and resources directly to the national government."


It's about time for Afghanistan to take back all its "heritage territory", kick the ethnic elite out of government, shed interference from foreign intelligence agencies, and build some roads. And to execute Karzai for criminal incompetence.

Road map to peace right there. 


--Abhinav

Which Side Will China Choose?

Post by Tim Armstrong, Great Decisions student

With tensions building between the US and Iran, the question of which side China will take becomes more and more relevant. On one side, Iran claims ties between Tehran and Beijing has increased recently due to policies of the US. Saeed Jalili, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Counsel, claims that "both nations have agreed on the need to fight against unilateralism." He then talked about how both countries are opposed to powers that use their military and economic pressure to control other countries.

On the other side, President Obama is confident that China will support the US after talking with Chinese President Hu Jintao about the "importance of working together" on Iran. This seems like a sudden shift in China's policies since they have been pretty resistant to previous calls for additional sanctions, stating that they prefer diplomacy. This cooperation between the two powers shows a willingness to move beyond issues such as Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama and US arms sales to Taiwan.

We will see how China's stance changes when they are forced to talk with action instead of words. China will only be able to play both sides of the coin for so long. The more time China takes to choose a side the closer Iran gets to developing nuclear warheads and potentially upsetting the balance in the middle east.

More information here and here.

The Af-US Relationship

Post by Leah Downey, Great Decisions student

This is an article about a recent flare up between Hamid Karzai and the Obama Administration. The article demonstrates the line that the Obama administration walks between the "strong Afghan partner (that) is key to the Obama strategy of winning over the civilian population and turning Afghans against the Taliban" and not getting to close to a leader who has been wrapped up in election fraud, threatens to join the Taliban if his parliament doesn't back his decisions, and calls on foreign powers to stop "meddling" in Afghan affairs. I do not envy the Obama Administration. They're in a tough spot. It is quite obvious that they need to support Karzai and the Afghan parliament to some extent, in order to form a stable and timely government for the country of Afghanistan. However, what is most frightening to me is that if the Administration leans too far the other way, the US could end up in another situation (like that of the Shah of Iran or Batista in Cuba) in which we were in bed with a corrupt, power hungry leader who may have been corporative, but who's government lacked checks and balances, sustainability, efficiency and respect for human rights. Ultimately, that type of governments doesn't last. Will the Obama Administration be able to walk the line? Will the new Afghan government endure? More importantly, when this all shakes out, will AfPak be a US ally?

One of the Readings

Link Here

Read from the page it directs you through page 219 (the beginning of the next article)

China agrees to Iran sanctions

China says it will support sanctions on Iran. This appears to be a very impressive piece of diplomacy by the Obama administration to get first Russia and now the very recalcitrant China to sign on to sanctions against Iran. I wonder how China was persuaded. Nothing fundamentally has changed recently that would move China toward sanctions. So what were the back room negotiations like? Did the US offer something in return to China? (as many people saw the end to the Star Wars missile defense systems with Russia as a way to get the Russians on board with Iran sanctions).

China

Here's an article about China's global role. The article is another take on the major issues we discussed. What does China's recent aggressive behavior signal? Despite signals from Chinese leaders for many years that at some point, political liberalization would occur, it's unclear when that time will be. It also discusses that, paradoxically, with China's trade liberalization, political liberalization has seemed less a reality. That is, the US saw trade as a way to open up China and to be part of a "peaceful evolution" on the political side. But, with rising economic prowess as as result of the strength of its trade, political liberalization has seemed more distant. Enter Obama. The article argues that he has adopted a different tone that accepts China as it is and is less focused on the slow march of history in a narrative defined by American ideas. The idea, the author says, of the US as the world power bringing China onto the world stage has ended. But this, in fact, might have a silver lining: that the US can now develop an economic policy towards China that is not tied to a larger political project.

Osama Bin Laden

As we wait in anticipation for the arrival of Michael Scheuer to the UNC campus, topics in the Persian Gulf are heating up. The 9/11 planners are set to be put on trial in the US...hundreds of metres away from Ground Zero. With this in mind, Osama Bin Laden has issued a fierce warning to the West: If you execute one of mine, I will execute one of yours. Read this article to find out more. Should the US be worried about the forthcoming trials?

Global Crime: Narcotics

Since our informative lecture by Bruce Bagley, the drug war has escalated. This BBC Article tells us that drug gangs have spread throughout the US - the largest market. It appears that vast quantities of money and effort are in vain, and alternative ways are needed to stop this growing global crime.

Gorbachev Revisited

An interesting op-ed piece recently in the New York Times by Mikhail Gorbachev, the former leader of Soviet Russia, gives an interesting perspective to not only the transition of the USSR into Russia, but how Russian politics are working today, and in some ways regressing back to old ways. Gorbachev talks about the Perestroika, which this month celebrates its 25 anniversary. The Perestroika was a series of political and economic reforms enforced by Gorbachev's goverment in order to save Soviet Russia. However, Gorbachev concedes the government was already too far gone for the Perestorika to single handely save it. In a suprising turn, Gorbachev underlines some of the major pit falls and mistakes made during his time as leader of Soviet Russia. However, ultimately (and quite predictably) maintains the Perestroika while late, had valuable contributions that are undermined by today's government in Russia. Gorbachev ultimately suggests (somewhat ironically) there is great instability within Russia, and that people are living within a state of political fear-- a position in which it makes it difficult for Russia to move forward democratically.

China currency manipulation

Paul Krugman has some harsh words for China about their undervalued currency, blaming the Chinese for dragging out the worldwide recession.

He says, "And it’s a policy that seriously damages the rest of the world. Most of the world’s large economies are stuck in a liquidity trap — deeply depressed, but unable to generate a recovery by cutting interest rates because the relevant rates are already near zero. China, by engineering an unwarranted trade surplus, is in effect imposing an anti-stimulus on these economies, which they can’t offset."

So what can the US do? He wants Washington to get serious about it. But China has rebuffed a lot of the currency accusations and scolded the US about trying to lecture Beijing on economic policy. Interestingly, Krugman points out that China doesn't really have an incentive to dump a lot of its dollars because that would force China to take losses on its investment and also it would help US exports.

Containment of Iran?

This article looks at the scenario for containing a nuclear Iran. That is, if we go ahead and assume that Iran will get the bomb, what will our containment policy look like. Will "what worked with the soviets work with the mullahs?" is the question. The US worked to stop China from developing nuclear weapons in the 1960s but then slowly began to formulate a policy of containment after it became clear it would. So if China and Russia changed over decades, can Iran? The article lays out the argument for a containment policy. I have my doubts. We don't seem to have a clear policy towards Iran and are unsure, as the article points out, where our point of "tolerance" is - or, where that line in the sand is.

Russia-U.S. Nuclear Limitation Talks Progressing

Article.

The United States and Russia have been meeting to try and create a successor treaty to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which expired in December. Following Obama's general goal of nuclear reduction and an eventual nuclear-weapon-free world, the two parties are trying to agree on further reduction quotas, and both have said that talks are progressing wonderfully.

This NYTimes article is another illustration of how drug cartel violence is influencing everyday life. The Red Cross is no longer accepting patients wounded by drug related conflict or from prisons. Those Red Cross ambulances transporting those wounded in drug cartel-related violence have been pulled over, killing Red Cross workers in the process.

"BRIC Poised"

Bollywood star Amitabh Bachnan might as well be speaking for all four BRIC nations in this "anthem" commemorating the 60th anniversary of the Indian republic. Watch here.

Natural Disaster Survival: A Function of Society

Christopher Hitchens does it again, by succinctly pointing out the fact that the stability of a society goes far more towards determining the relative stability upon encounter with natural disaster than anything else.

Thesis here:

"     Professor Amartya Sen made a reputation some decades ago for pointing out that in the 20th century no serious famine had occurred in an open or democratic society, however poor. In the classic case that he studied—that of Bengal under British colonial occupation in the 1940s—tens of thousands of people had starved to death in areas that had overflowing granaries. It was not a shortage of food, but of information and of proper administration (cough, Monty cough, Gregor), that had led to the disaster. The Ukrainian famine of the 1930s, as was pointed out by Robert Conquest in his book The Harvest of Sorrow, was the result of a dictatorial policy rather than any failure of the crops.
     Taking this as an approximate analogy or metaphor, people are beginning to notice that the likelihood of perishing in an earthquake, or of being utterly dispossessed by it, is as much a function of the society in which one lives as it is of proximity to a fault."


Most Quotable Quote here:

"     But the Iranian regime, as we know, has other priorities entirely, and it has worked very hard to insulate not its people from earthquakes, but itself from its people. I remember sitting in one of Tehran's epic traffic snarls a few years ago and thinking, "What if a big one was to hit now?" This horrible thought was succeeded by two even more disturbing ones: What if the giant shudder came at night, when citizens were packed tightly into unregulated and code-free apartment buildings? And what would happen to the secret nuclear facilities, both under the ground and above it? I know what the mullahs would say—that the will of Allah was immutable. But what would the survivors think when they looked around the (possibly irradiated) ruins and saw how disposable their leaders had considered them to be?"

Full article found here

Another envoy?

So obviously Obama likes his envoys but his new one, Rashad Hussein, what is his job exactly?

He is supposed to "be responsible for helping to bridge another culture divide--the one in U.S. relations with Muslims inside and outside the nation's borders."

Also, Hussain is both "a Koran scholar and an ardent North Carolina Tar Heels basketball fan"

Well at least he's a Tar Heel!

Article

Global Crime Reading

Required Readings
1) Great Decision’s booklet article (focus on drug trafficking)
2) The Columbian-Mexican- US Connection article
3) The US Drug Enforcement Administration website -- Please peruse this great website, focus on the drug trafficking in the United States section and the trafficking by Colombian and Mexican organizations.
4) Drug Trafficking, Political Violence and U.S. Policy in Colombia in the 1990s

Optional Readings
These readings consist of current event articles and general information articles.
1) Latin American Organized Crime
2) You Tube (for those who prefer visuals): Warning: Graphic images
3) Some good news articles and current events:
Miami Herald
New York Times 1
New York Times 2
New York Times 3
New York Times 4
Drug Policy 1
Drug Policy 2

The Criminal Metaphor: A preponderance of power as a protection racket

In an intriguing thesis by the late economist Mancur Olson, the tax-collecting, public good-providing behavior of any autocratic government can be directly perceived via the microcosmic lens of a Mafia protection racket in Sunset Park, Brooklyn. For the roaming, small-time thief, the future wealth of his victim means nothing; he takes 100 percent of whatever is in the purse. Yet for the stationary Mafioso who monopolizes power in a given neighborhood, he does not rob but rather taxes, such that the money given to him protects the taxpayer from both crimes that he would commit if no payment was received and crimes that outsiders would commit if the Mafioso had not monopolized power in that neighborhood.

For Olson, any autocratic government is a direct, macrocosmic replica of this criminal dynamic. The autocrat does not rob and pillage 100 percent of his subjects' wealth; if he did so, there would be no incentive for them to keep producing. In fact, the autocrat maximizes his collections from his subjects when his subjects are doing as well as they can for themselves. In this light, the proffering of public goods and services by an autocratic government is in fact a masquerade for the self-interest of that government -- nothing more benevolent than that.

Those interested in Olson's metaphor should pick up his book Power and Prosperity.

"Peak Insurgency"?

A sidebar post by Joshua Keating in the March/April issue of Foreign Policy, reproduced in its entirety below:

"In the early 1990s, with the Cold War over and a rash of small but brutal conflicts breaking out in the Balkans and throughout Africa, it seemed the world was entering an age of irregular conflict and civil war. But, according to a working paper by two Yale University political scientists, the truth is just the opposite: The number of civil conflicts reached a high point in 1991 and has been dropping steadily ever since. The percentage of those conflicts that could be described as an "insurgency" -- an asymmetric conflict between a rebel group and central government -- has also dropped. So much for the "anarchy" that journalist Robert Kaplan predicted in 1994. Instead, the researchers declare, insurgency is "a historically contingent political phenomenon that has already peaked." The authors, Stathis N. Kalyvas and Laia Balcells, think the Cold War's dynamics benefited insurgents far more than central governments, as superpowers gave aid to rebel groups that fought as their proxies. The insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan that currently have Western policymakers tied up in knots are arguably throwbacks from another era. Conflict could make a comeback, but mostly as something the researchers call "symmetric non-conventional" civil war. This type of fighting, such as the ongoing chaos in Somalia, is often inaccurately described as guerrilla warfare but actually involves two sides that are evenly matched but poorly equipped. In other words: Goodbye, Baghdad; hello, Mogadishu. "

Kenya's Scandals

Kenya's corruption scandals are notorious now and ironically even more so since President Kibaki hired his corruption czar, John Githongo (who ended up resigning and fleeing the country). But when ministers start taking money from education funds, what are donors to do about it? For donors to play politics by withholding aid to the Ministry of Education just ends up hurting students even more, but not responding at all also shows the government officials that their actions wouldn't have repercusions. After the latest problems with the coalition government after ministers accused of corruption were suspended and then reinstated, John Githongo thinks that the government is aiming to fray nearer to the 2012 elections. But for now he says:

"At the current time the coalition is held together by corruption- by the fact that you have everybody at the feeding trough and as long as everybody is at the trough and there is still enough to feed on they will hold together despite disagreeing on issues every once in a while."

U.S. China Security Relations Readings

· U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission annual report to Congress: Executive Summary (pg. 1-19): Read

· Foreign Policy: Big Trouble With Big China: Read

· RAND summary of China-Taiwan relations as it relates to U.S.-China security: Read

· James Mann's treatment of China Fantasies: Available via Google books (see pp. 1-12). Go directly to: Read

· Editorial: The Challenge of China: Read

· No Chance Against China: Google's defeat foretells the day when Beijing rules the world: Read

· Understanding China: Read

· “Be Nice to the Countries that Lend You Money”: Read

· How Taiwan and North Korea complicate the Sino-American relationship: Read

· For U.S., China, uneasiness about economic co-dependency: Read

Multimedia:

Obama speech at 2009 Shanghai town hall: Watch

Drug Cartels

The op-ed, “Doing the Math on Mexican Drug Cartels” in the New York Times provides an interesting perspective on Mexican drug cartels. This personal perspective brings to light the very human aspect of the drug trade reflecting both on those who participate actively within it, and also those who despite their disaffiliation with the drug trade have their lives transformed by it. The article definitely juxtaposes the more newsy pieces on South American drug cartels and provides some interesting food for thought. Though we often view the drug trade through a broad lens, it can be important to see the individualized and smaller roots of the drug trade that feed into and are the life blood of these enormous cartels.

Blast as Holbrooke visits Pakistan

Well, somebody doesn't like Holbrooke...

Jazera Article

Is the Dalai Lama a "wolf in monk's clothing"?

After President Obama recently announced his intention to meet with the Dalai Lama, Beijing is allowing its antagonism towards the Tibetan spiritual leader to infect U.S.-Sino relations. Zhu Weiqun of the CCP's State Council declared: "[The Obama-Dalai Lama meeting] will seriously undermine the political foundations for Sino-U.S. relations. The Chinese people will not turn a blind eye to those who undermine China's sovereignty and national dignity."

Strong words. (But do they hold any practical gravitas?)

Obama's move is not unprecedented. Recent U.S. presidents have indeed met with the Dalai Lama; Bush did so after the Dalai Lama won the Nobel Peace Prize. Yet examine the context: one can argue that Bush was compelled to hold the meeting because of the Nobel. In addition, Obama choosing to meet the Dalai Lama in a spiritual or cultural setting, such as a temple, would be able to lend credence to his assertion that the event will be solely predicated on spiritual and cultural grounds. However, this is not the case. Scheduling the Dalai Lama at the White House is a clear indication that the meeting is intended to be a political gesture, with the finger prominently pointed at Beijing.

A lucid Times article on the topic can be found here.

More post-election drama in Ukraine

BBC Article

Claims made by Yulia Tymoshenko of illegitimate victory to Ukranian courts have resulted in a supsension of the election results while evidence of fraud is considered. The victory-apparent, Viktor Yanukovich, was formerly accused and convicted of fraud in the previous Ukrainian election in 2004. However, international observers have declared that the electoral procedures that they observed were, in fact, free and fair, so it is unknown what sort of evidence Tymoshenko has presented to the court.
The president was due to be inaugurated on the 25th of February, but if the results are suspended for an extended period of time, it is likely that this will be pushed back.

Power Struggle in Kenya

While Kenya has been on rocky ground ever since the signing of the National Accord that instituted a coalition government, tensions have erupted in the past two days between the Prime Minister, Ralia Odinga, and President Mwai Kibaki. Prime Minister Odinga now wants Kofi Annan (mediator from the intitial intervention to end the post-election violence) to step in and help reconcile this issue.

Recently a scandal (one of many which has plagued Kenya recently) was reported that allegedly involves the Ministers of Agriculture and Education. Odinga took action by suspending them until a review could decide whether or not they were guilty, apparently done without the consultation of President Kibaki. The President now claims that Odinga has overstepped his constitutional powers and reinstated the two ministers.

Tensions like these have been quiet in the recent months with the Coalition government seeming to get along, but with this new eruption of power struggle, people worry about the effects on the rest of the population. When tensions like these get reported in the news, there inevitably has been increased dialogue of ethnic hatred and more foreshadowing of potential future violence.

Hopefully Kenya will see that this issue dies down quickly to forestall any potential side effects of increased tensions at the local level, but if Annan is truly need, there will be more questioning from the public about the ability of the coalition government to ever work together to institute the reforms they have promised.

Article from BBC

Yemen's Coming Explosion

As Yemen briefly entered and left the spotlight due to attempted airline bombing by Omar Farouk Abdul Mutallab, the US national security establishment has had their eyes on Yemen for quite some time.

"Tick, Tock: Yemen's Coming Explosion" is a recent article in Foreign Policy magazine that highlights Yemen's dire situation.

I recently wrote a response to this article in American Diplomacy which provides an alternative perspective.

Readings for "Special Envoys" Lecture with Daniel Kurtzer

Foreign Policy article on Mitchell's position as Envoy:

http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/01/22/time_for_george_mitchell_to_resign

The Special Envoys articles in the Great Decisions book

Fullilove article from Foreign Policy at onset of Obama administration: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64895/michael-fullilove/send-the-envoy

*Note: good to read article above before article below since it will provide a contrast of opinions

Politico article reviewing a year of progress for Obama's first appointed Special Envoys: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/30203.html

Policy refresher for Israel (in preparation for Kurtzer): http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/05/world/asia/05clinton.html?scp=1&sq=special%20envoy%20mitchell&st=cse

More background on the Israel settlement policy: http://www.economist.com/world/middleeast-africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14939295

Kurtzer's article on Israel policy: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/12/AR2009061203498.html

A direct and quick analysis of the theoretical role of Special Envoys: http://www.caii.com/CAIIStaff/Dashboard_GIROAdminCAIIStaff/Dashboard_CAIIAdminDatabase/resources/ghai/toolbox1.htm

Additional envoys of interest:

*Bosworth and North Korea: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1946145,00.html

*Short article on Gration: http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/10/20/inspector_generals_report_praises_sudan_envoy_scott_gration
*Holbrooke has been quite instrumental in these recent Afghanistan developments (there are a slew of articles concerning these actions, we only included one here): http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/21/world/asia/21diplo.html

Online forum with Special Envoy to Sudan Scott Gration: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNSXeMkiZ_M

(First student question at 5:40; 11 min discusses the pullout of NGOs)

Political cartoon: http://gulfnews.com/opinions/peace-efforts-in-the-middle-east-by-george-mitchell-1.572676

U.S.-China Security Relations (from the Chinese perspective)

In American foreign policy, we inherently and inevitably view the world from the American worldview -- for better or for worse. At Great Decisions, we want to present both sides of each coin by supplementing our readings with relevant journalistic, academic, and governmental works from the country we are studying. However, most of the time we encounter the problem of language and our lack of ability to translate the documents into English. For U.S.-China security relations, we conveniently found a number of articles written by Chinese academics and governmental committees that are in English, and will reserve them until the week of our topic. To give you a preview, read this interesting American account of the Chinese perspective on U.S. diplomacy from UColorado political scientist Peter H. Gries:

http://www.ou.edu/uschina/gries/articles/texts/Gries2005ChinaEyesHegemon.pdf

Europe faces more problems from the financial crisis

More ripples from last year's financial crisis are sweeping over many European countries. Greece, in particular, recently borrowed enormous sums of money to keep the country afloat, and now there are fears that it won't be able to repay that debt. If Greece defaults, that means big trouble for the euro.
This will be an interesting test for the European Union, which has never dealt with such a problem. One option is to let Greece bankrupt itself. Another option is to step in, buy the government's bonds, and avert financial disaster for the EU. The second option sounds much more pleasant, but by stepping in, the EU would be perceived as letting Greece off too easy, and other countries will feel less pressured to narrow their deficits. Rather than taking a stance, we will more likely see a roundabout interaction, with France and Germany coming to the rescue, rather than the EU itself.
Greece has already promised to drastically cut its deficit. But of course, Greece isn't the only one in trouble. Fears are arising for Portugal and Spain as well. And look at our own country! Our deficit is enormous, although fortunately most of the world still views us as the safest place to store money. For that reason the dollar is growing strong, as the euro weakens. Perfect for a European spring break.

Read more: "France, Germany Weigh Rescue Plan for Greece" Article

Massive Protests and Electoral Uncertainty in Ukaine

This week, Ukraine underwent presidential elections in the first election since the Orange Revolution that put Viktor Yushchenko into power. Yushchenko's election as the pro-Western, anti-Russian populist economist that would save the country has failed to turn around problems in the country. Due to widespread national disillusionment, he has lost virtually all political capital, and the recent election was between his one-time ally and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and his old rival in the 2004 election, Viktor Yanukovich.

In a startling turn of events, Yanukovich was declared the winner by 3.5%, turning the country virtually completely around. Yanukovich was the strongly pro-Russian candidate, and he has already declared that the top foreign policy priority of his administration would be rebuilding relations with Russia and the CIS, with a return to "common culture and economic interests".
As of yet, Tymoshenko has refused to recognize the results of this election, and hasn't been seen in public or made any statements since the results were announced. She is expected to call for a partial recount, but Yanukovich has already called for her to step down from her current position as Prime Minister to allow him to establish political unity in the government.

Article.

Readings for this week's lecture "Kenya and R2P" with Andrea Bartoli:

"A New Approach": The Responsibility to Protect (from the ICISS main report)
Pages 11-18 discuss the main issues underlying R2P
http://www.iciss.ca/menu-en.asp

The Kenya/R2P article in the Great Decisions book

"Never Again" in Foreign Policy
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/11/25/never_again

Two-sided Debate: Should the US suport the UN's Responsibility to Protect?
http://www.cfr.org/publication/16285/should_the_us_support_the_uns_responsibility_to_protect_doctrine.html

What did governments from around the world say about R2P at the UN General Assembly debate?
http://www.responsibilitytoprotect.org/index.php/component/content/article/35-r2pcs-topics/2672-what-did-governments-from-your-region-say-at-the-ga-debate

Multimedia: Gordon Brown on Global Ethic vs National Interest
(mentions R2P between 8 min and 12 min)

U.S. sells weapons to Taiwan, angering China

The Obama administration announced Friday the sale of $6 billion worth of anti-missile systems, helicopters, mine-sweeping ships and communications equipment to Taiwan in a long-expected move that sparked an angry protest from China. While the US has an important interest in ensuring the survival of a democratic government in Taiwan, it is also in the interest of the US to foster a peaceful resolution of Taiwan’s international status.

China's vice minister of foreign affairs, He Yafei, said Friday that Beijing was "strongly indignant" about the arms sales to Taiwan and warned that they would have a "serious negative impact" on U.S.-China cooperation.

However, The United States says weapons sales to Taiwan help to maintain stability in East Asia by making it more difficult for Beijing to bully Taiwan. The United States is legally obligated to provide weapons for Taiwan's defense, under the Taiwan Relations Act.

It seems that such a move has exacerbated other issues in which China and the U.S. are at odds such as how to deal with Iran's nuclear program, issues involving Internet freedom and how Beijing is treating Western businesses. Despite an intense effort by The Obama administration to improve ties with Beijing, the sale of weapons to Taiwan seems to only heighten tensions between countries and complicates future issues. How will such a move impact future dialogue between the U.S. and China?

Read more:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8489301.stm

China's Top Ten (Known) Cyber Attacks

At once hilarious and alarming.

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/01/22/the_top_10_chinese_cyber_attacks_that_we_know_of

North and South Korea back at it

In contrast to hopes that six-party talks would continue, North Korea and South Korea have started making vague threats at each other.

To summarize, South Korea stated publicly that if it believed that North Korea was planning a nuclear attack, they would launch a pre-emptive attack against their nuclear facilities. In response, Pyongyang said that any indication that Seoul was preparing to do so would be treated as an act of war and would "be met with swift and decisive military action".

Article.

2010: Drug Related Violence on the Rise

The start of 2010 has shown that drug cartel related violence has not slowed down in Mexico. With 69 drug related murders in one day, the start of the year isn't boding well for Mexico's War on Drugs. Though President Calderon announced his war on drug cartels in 2006 the violence over drugs is escalating--and not just with mere numbers. Drug lords are committing more grotesque crimes and murders than ever before, fueling even further fear. Many seem to blame the demand from the United States for drugs and the high levels of unemployment in Mexico as causes for the rise in violence.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2010/01/11/world/AP-LT-Drug-War-Mexico.html?_r=1&scp=5&sq=drug%20traffikcing&st=cse

Where Russia Meets China

So interesting it should be mandatory