Another envoy?

So obviously Obama likes his envoys but his new one, Rashad Hussein, what is his job exactly?

He is supposed to "be responsible for helping to bridge another culture divide--the one in U.S. relations with Muslims inside and outside the nation's borders."

Also, Hussain is both "a Koran scholar and an ardent North Carolina Tar Heels basketball fan"

Well at least he's a Tar Heel!

Article

Global Crime Reading

Required Readings
1) Great Decision’s booklet article (focus on drug trafficking)
2) The Columbian-Mexican- US Connection article
3) The US Drug Enforcement Administration website -- Please peruse this great website, focus on the drug trafficking in the United States section and the trafficking by Colombian and Mexican organizations.
4) Drug Trafficking, Political Violence and U.S. Policy in Colombia in the 1990s

Optional Readings
These readings consist of current event articles and general information articles.
1) Latin American Organized Crime
2) You Tube (for those who prefer visuals): Warning: Graphic images
3) Some good news articles and current events:
Miami Herald
New York Times 1
New York Times 2
New York Times 3
New York Times 4
Drug Policy 1
Drug Policy 2

The Criminal Metaphor: A preponderance of power as a protection racket

In an intriguing thesis by the late economist Mancur Olson, the tax-collecting, public good-providing behavior of any autocratic government can be directly perceived via the microcosmic lens of a Mafia protection racket in Sunset Park, Brooklyn. For the roaming, small-time thief, the future wealth of his victim means nothing; he takes 100 percent of whatever is in the purse. Yet for the stationary Mafioso who monopolizes power in a given neighborhood, he does not rob but rather taxes, such that the money given to him protects the taxpayer from both crimes that he would commit if no payment was received and crimes that outsiders would commit if the Mafioso had not monopolized power in that neighborhood.

For Olson, any autocratic government is a direct, macrocosmic replica of this criminal dynamic. The autocrat does not rob and pillage 100 percent of his subjects' wealth; if he did so, there would be no incentive for them to keep producing. In fact, the autocrat maximizes his collections from his subjects when his subjects are doing as well as they can for themselves. In this light, the proffering of public goods and services by an autocratic government is in fact a masquerade for the self-interest of that government -- nothing more benevolent than that.

Those interested in Olson's metaphor should pick up his book Power and Prosperity.

"Peak Insurgency"?

A sidebar post by Joshua Keating in the March/April issue of Foreign Policy, reproduced in its entirety below:

"In the early 1990s, with the Cold War over and a rash of small but brutal conflicts breaking out in the Balkans and throughout Africa, it seemed the world was entering an age of irregular conflict and civil war. But, according to a working paper by two Yale University political scientists, the truth is just the opposite: The number of civil conflicts reached a high point in 1991 and has been dropping steadily ever since. The percentage of those conflicts that could be described as an "insurgency" -- an asymmetric conflict between a rebel group and central government -- has also dropped. So much for the "anarchy" that journalist Robert Kaplan predicted in 1994. Instead, the researchers declare, insurgency is "a historically contingent political phenomenon that has already peaked." The authors, Stathis N. Kalyvas and Laia Balcells, think the Cold War's dynamics benefited insurgents far more than central governments, as superpowers gave aid to rebel groups that fought as their proxies. The insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan that currently have Western policymakers tied up in knots are arguably throwbacks from another era. Conflict could make a comeback, but mostly as something the researchers call "symmetric non-conventional" civil war. This type of fighting, such as the ongoing chaos in Somalia, is often inaccurately described as guerrilla warfare but actually involves two sides that are evenly matched but poorly equipped. In other words: Goodbye, Baghdad; hello, Mogadishu. "

Kenya's Scandals

Kenya's corruption scandals are notorious now and ironically even more so since President Kibaki hired his corruption czar, John Githongo (who ended up resigning and fleeing the country). But when ministers start taking money from education funds, what are donors to do about it? For donors to play politics by withholding aid to the Ministry of Education just ends up hurting students even more, but not responding at all also shows the government officials that their actions wouldn't have repercusions. After the latest problems with the coalition government after ministers accused of corruption were suspended and then reinstated, John Githongo thinks that the government is aiming to fray nearer to the 2012 elections. But for now he says:

"At the current time the coalition is held together by corruption- by the fact that you have everybody at the feeding trough and as long as everybody is at the trough and there is still enough to feed on they will hold together despite disagreeing on issues every once in a while."

U.S. China Security Relations Readings

· U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission annual report to Congress: Executive Summary (pg. 1-19): Read

· Foreign Policy: Big Trouble With Big China: Read

· RAND summary of China-Taiwan relations as it relates to U.S.-China security: Read

· James Mann's treatment of China Fantasies: Available via Google books (see pp. 1-12). Go directly to: Read

· Editorial: The Challenge of China: Read

· No Chance Against China: Google's defeat foretells the day when Beijing rules the world: Read

· Understanding China: Read

· “Be Nice to the Countries that Lend You Money”: Read

· How Taiwan and North Korea complicate the Sino-American relationship: Read

· For U.S., China, uneasiness about economic co-dependency: Read

Multimedia:

Obama speech at 2009 Shanghai town hall: Watch

Drug Cartels

The op-ed, “Doing the Math on Mexican Drug Cartels” in the New York Times provides an interesting perspective on Mexican drug cartels. This personal perspective brings to light the very human aspect of the drug trade reflecting both on those who participate actively within it, and also those who despite their disaffiliation with the drug trade have their lives transformed by it. The article definitely juxtaposes the more newsy pieces on South American drug cartels and provides some interesting food for thought. Though we often view the drug trade through a broad lens, it can be important to see the individualized and smaller roots of the drug trade that feed into and are the life blood of these enormous cartels.

Blast as Holbrooke visits Pakistan

Well, somebody doesn't like Holbrooke...

Jazera Article

Is the Dalai Lama a "wolf in monk's clothing"?

After President Obama recently announced his intention to meet with the Dalai Lama, Beijing is allowing its antagonism towards the Tibetan spiritual leader to infect U.S.-Sino relations. Zhu Weiqun of the CCP's State Council declared: "[The Obama-Dalai Lama meeting] will seriously undermine the political foundations for Sino-U.S. relations. The Chinese people will not turn a blind eye to those who undermine China's sovereignty and national dignity."

Strong words. (But do they hold any practical gravitas?)

Obama's move is not unprecedented. Recent U.S. presidents have indeed met with the Dalai Lama; Bush did so after the Dalai Lama won the Nobel Peace Prize. Yet examine the context: one can argue that Bush was compelled to hold the meeting because of the Nobel. In addition, Obama choosing to meet the Dalai Lama in a spiritual or cultural setting, such as a temple, would be able to lend credence to his assertion that the event will be solely predicated on spiritual and cultural grounds. However, this is not the case. Scheduling the Dalai Lama at the White House is a clear indication that the meeting is intended to be a political gesture, with the finger prominently pointed at Beijing.

A lucid Times article on the topic can be found here.

More post-election drama in Ukraine

BBC Article

Claims made by Yulia Tymoshenko of illegitimate victory to Ukranian courts have resulted in a supsension of the election results while evidence of fraud is considered. The victory-apparent, Viktor Yanukovich, was formerly accused and convicted of fraud in the previous Ukrainian election in 2004. However, international observers have declared that the electoral procedures that they observed were, in fact, free and fair, so it is unknown what sort of evidence Tymoshenko has presented to the court.
The president was due to be inaugurated on the 25th of February, but if the results are suspended for an extended period of time, it is likely that this will be pushed back.

Power Struggle in Kenya

While Kenya has been on rocky ground ever since the signing of the National Accord that instituted a coalition government, tensions have erupted in the past two days between the Prime Minister, Ralia Odinga, and President Mwai Kibaki. Prime Minister Odinga now wants Kofi Annan (mediator from the intitial intervention to end the post-election violence) to step in and help reconcile this issue.

Recently a scandal (one of many which has plagued Kenya recently) was reported that allegedly involves the Ministers of Agriculture and Education. Odinga took action by suspending them until a review could decide whether or not they were guilty, apparently done without the consultation of President Kibaki. The President now claims that Odinga has overstepped his constitutional powers and reinstated the two ministers.

Tensions like these have been quiet in the recent months with the Coalition government seeming to get along, but with this new eruption of power struggle, people worry about the effects on the rest of the population. When tensions like these get reported in the news, there inevitably has been increased dialogue of ethnic hatred and more foreshadowing of potential future violence.

Hopefully Kenya will see that this issue dies down quickly to forestall any potential side effects of increased tensions at the local level, but if Annan is truly need, there will be more questioning from the public about the ability of the coalition government to ever work together to institute the reforms they have promised.

Article from BBC

Yemen's Coming Explosion

As Yemen briefly entered and left the spotlight due to attempted airline bombing by Omar Farouk Abdul Mutallab, the US national security establishment has had their eyes on Yemen for quite some time.

"Tick, Tock: Yemen's Coming Explosion" is a recent article in Foreign Policy magazine that highlights Yemen's dire situation.

I recently wrote a response to this article in American Diplomacy which provides an alternative perspective.

Readings for "Special Envoys" Lecture with Daniel Kurtzer

Foreign Policy article on Mitchell's position as Envoy:

http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/01/22/time_for_george_mitchell_to_resign

The Special Envoys articles in the Great Decisions book

Fullilove article from Foreign Policy at onset of Obama administration: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64895/michael-fullilove/send-the-envoy

*Note: good to read article above before article below since it will provide a contrast of opinions

Politico article reviewing a year of progress for Obama's first appointed Special Envoys: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/30203.html

Policy refresher for Israel (in preparation for Kurtzer): http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/05/world/asia/05clinton.html?scp=1&sq=special%20envoy%20mitchell&st=cse

More background on the Israel settlement policy: http://www.economist.com/world/middleeast-africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14939295

Kurtzer's article on Israel policy: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/12/AR2009061203498.html

A direct and quick analysis of the theoretical role of Special Envoys: http://www.caii.com/CAIIStaff/Dashboard_GIROAdminCAIIStaff/Dashboard_CAIIAdminDatabase/resources/ghai/toolbox1.htm

Additional envoys of interest:

*Bosworth and North Korea: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1946145,00.html

*Short article on Gration: http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/10/20/inspector_generals_report_praises_sudan_envoy_scott_gration
*Holbrooke has been quite instrumental in these recent Afghanistan developments (there are a slew of articles concerning these actions, we only included one here): http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/21/world/asia/21diplo.html

Online forum with Special Envoy to Sudan Scott Gration: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNSXeMkiZ_M

(First student question at 5:40; 11 min discusses the pullout of NGOs)

Political cartoon: http://gulfnews.com/opinions/peace-efforts-in-the-middle-east-by-george-mitchell-1.572676

U.S.-China Security Relations (from the Chinese perspective)

In American foreign policy, we inherently and inevitably view the world from the American worldview -- for better or for worse. At Great Decisions, we want to present both sides of each coin by supplementing our readings with relevant journalistic, academic, and governmental works from the country we are studying. However, most of the time we encounter the problem of language and our lack of ability to translate the documents into English. For U.S.-China security relations, we conveniently found a number of articles written by Chinese academics and governmental committees that are in English, and will reserve them until the week of our topic. To give you a preview, read this interesting American account of the Chinese perspective on U.S. diplomacy from UColorado political scientist Peter H. Gries:

http://www.ou.edu/uschina/gries/articles/texts/Gries2005ChinaEyesHegemon.pdf

Europe faces more problems from the financial crisis

More ripples from last year's financial crisis are sweeping over many European countries. Greece, in particular, recently borrowed enormous sums of money to keep the country afloat, and now there are fears that it won't be able to repay that debt. If Greece defaults, that means big trouble for the euro.
This will be an interesting test for the European Union, which has never dealt with such a problem. One option is to let Greece bankrupt itself. Another option is to step in, buy the government's bonds, and avert financial disaster for the EU. The second option sounds much more pleasant, but by stepping in, the EU would be perceived as letting Greece off too easy, and other countries will feel less pressured to narrow their deficits. Rather than taking a stance, we will more likely see a roundabout interaction, with France and Germany coming to the rescue, rather than the EU itself.
Greece has already promised to drastically cut its deficit. But of course, Greece isn't the only one in trouble. Fears are arising for Portugal and Spain as well. And look at our own country! Our deficit is enormous, although fortunately most of the world still views us as the safest place to store money. For that reason the dollar is growing strong, as the euro weakens. Perfect for a European spring break.

Read more: "France, Germany Weigh Rescue Plan for Greece" Article

Massive Protests and Electoral Uncertainty in Ukaine

This week, Ukraine underwent presidential elections in the first election since the Orange Revolution that put Viktor Yushchenko into power. Yushchenko's election as the pro-Western, anti-Russian populist economist that would save the country has failed to turn around problems in the country. Due to widespread national disillusionment, he has lost virtually all political capital, and the recent election was between his one-time ally and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and his old rival in the 2004 election, Viktor Yanukovich.

In a startling turn of events, Yanukovich was declared the winner by 3.5%, turning the country virtually completely around. Yanukovich was the strongly pro-Russian candidate, and he has already declared that the top foreign policy priority of his administration would be rebuilding relations with Russia and the CIS, with a return to "common culture and economic interests".
As of yet, Tymoshenko has refused to recognize the results of this election, and hasn't been seen in public or made any statements since the results were announced. She is expected to call for a partial recount, but Yanukovich has already called for her to step down from her current position as Prime Minister to allow him to establish political unity in the government.

Article.

Readings for this week's lecture "Kenya and R2P" with Andrea Bartoli:

"A New Approach": The Responsibility to Protect (from the ICISS main report)
Pages 11-18 discuss the main issues underlying R2P
http://www.iciss.ca/menu-en.asp

The Kenya/R2P article in the Great Decisions book

"Never Again" in Foreign Policy
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/11/25/never_again

Two-sided Debate: Should the US suport the UN's Responsibility to Protect?
http://www.cfr.org/publication/16285/should_the_us_support_the_uns_responsibility_to_protect_doctrine.html

What did governments from around the world say about R2P at the UN General Assembly debate?
http://www.responsibilitytoprotect.org/index.php/component/content/article/35-r2pcs-topics/2672-what-did-governments-from-your-region-say-at-the-ga-debate

Multimedia: Gordon Brown on Global Ethic vs National Interest
(mentions R2P between 8 min and 12 min)